确认偏差源于欲望对信念的直接影响。
Confirmation biasoccurs from the direct influence of desire on beliefs.
当人们希望某个想法或概念是真的时候，他们最终会相信它是真的。他们的动机是一厢情愿。当目前收集的证据证实了一个人希望是真实的观点或偏见时，这种错误导致个人停止收集信息。
When people would like a certain idea or concept to be true,they end up believing it to be true.They are motivated by wishful thinking.This errorleads the individual to stop gathering information when the evidence gathered so far confirms the views or prejudices one would like to be true.
一旦我们形成了一种观点，我们就会接受证实这种观点的信息，而忽略或拒绝对这种观点产生怀疑的信息。确认偏差表明我们不能客观地感知环境。我们挑出那些让我们感觉良好的数据，因为，它们证实了我们的偏见。
Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or rejecting, information that casts doubt on it.Confirmation biassuggests that we don’t perceive circumstances objectively.We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good because they confirm our prejudices.
确认偏差或偏见（Confirmation Bias ）是一种表征良好的现象:以确认自己先入为主的方式搜索或解释信息的倾向。
Confirmation biasis a well-characterized phenomenon:thetendencyto search for or interpret informationin a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.
认知偏差的心理学
The Psychology ofConfirmation Bias
确认偏差是一种普遍现象，其影响可以追溯到公元前6世纪毕达哥拉斯对和声关系的研究（尼克森，1998年)，并在威廉·莎士比亚和弗朗西斯·培根的著作中引用(里辛格，萨克斯，汤普森和罗森塔尔，2002年).这也是个有问题的现象，在整个人类历史中，它与“发生在个人、群体和国家之间的很大一部分争端、争论和误解”有牵连，包括西欧和新英格兰的女巫审判，以及不准确的医疗诊断、无效的医疗和错误的科学理论(尼克森，1998年，第175页)。
Confirmation biasis a ubiquitous phenomenon, the effects of which have been traced as far back asPythagoras’ studies of harmonic relationships in the 6th century B.C.(Nickerson, 1998), and is referenced in the writings ofWilliam ShakespeareandFrancis Bacon(Risinger, Saks, Thompson, & Rosenthal, 2002).It is also a problematic phenomenon,having been implicatedin “a significant fraction of the disputes, altercations, and misunderstandingsthat occur among individuals, groups, and nations”throughout human history, including the witchtrials of Western Europe and New England,andthe perpetuation of inaccurate medical diagnoses, ineffective medical treatments, and erroneous scientific theories(Nickerson, 1998, p. 175).
在许多方面确认偏差强调了为什么首先需要发展科学方法论的全部原因。我们很自然地试图找到支持和证明我们信念的信息，这反过来会导致对矛盾证据的大规模忽视。相比之下，科学积极地试图反驳观点。科学方法让我们对自己的发现更有信心，也让科学家更不容易产生确认偏见(至少，从理论上讲，在他们的科学工作中)。但是人类天生不会以科学的方式思考，这使得流行和伪心理学更容易理解和吸收。而且，一旦相信了，就很难改变某人的想法(阿卢瓦利亚，2000年；尼汉和莱夫勒，2010年).但是，我们首先是如何获得这种信念的呢？
In many ways, theconfirmation biasundergirds the entire reasonwhyscientific methodology needed to be developed in the first place.We naturally try to find information that supports and proves our beliefs, which can, in turn, lead to the wholesale discounting or ignoring of contradictory evidence. Science, in contrast, actively tries to disprove ideas.The scientific methodallows for increased confidence in our findings and makes scientists less prone to theconfirmation bias(at least, theoretically speaking and in their scientific work). Buthumans do not naturally think in a scientific manner,which helps make pop and pseudo-psychology so much easier to understand and absorb. And,once believed, it can be very difficult to shift someone's ideas(Ahluwalia, 2000; Nyhan and Reifler, 2010).Buthow do we get to that beliefin the first place?
